It's the race everyone has an opinion on. Your nan picks based on names. Your mate swears by grey horses. And somewhere in the country, someone's looking at the form and doing it properly.
Let's be that someone.
The Grand National is chaos. Beautiful, thrilling, sometimes heartbreaking chaos. But within that chaos, there are patterns. Trends that hold up year after year. Profiles that work and profiles that don't.
This isn't about telling you which horse to back - we'll update this closer to the race with specific contenders. This is about teaching you how to think about the Grand National. Because if you get the methodology right, the selections follow.
Analyse Grand National Runners
RaceBrain gives you detailed form analysis for every runner in the National. See stamina stats, course form, and performance data that matters.
The Grand National Isn't Like Other Races
First things first. Forget most of what you know about analysing steeplechases.
This race is 4 miles and 2.5 furlongs. It has 30 unique fences (16 on the first circuit, 14 on the second). The field size is huge - up to 40 runners. And it takes over 8 minutes to complete.
Those facts change everything.
Speed matters less. Stamina matters more. Luck matters a lot. Jumping ability is essential - but so is jumping economically. A horse that gains lengths at every fence will be exhausted before the finish.
Different game. Different rules.
The Trends That Actually Matter
Every year, you'll see dozens of "Grand National trends" articles. Most are noise. Here's what I think genuinely helps:
Age Sweet Spot: 8-10 Years Old
Young horses lack experience. Old horses lack stamina. The data strongly favours 8, 9, and 10-year-olds. Anything younger or older is fighting history.
Weight Ceiling: Around 11st 4lb
Very few horses carry top weight and win. The last few decades strongly favour horses near the bottom of the handicap or middle at most. Higher weight means more to carry over four miles. Simple physics.
Recent Form Over Peak Form
Horses need to come into the National fit and healthy, not nursing injuries or returning from layoffs. A recent run - within the last 4-6 weeks - is a positive. Too long a break and they're rusty.
Previous Course Experience
Horses who have completed the Aintree fences before - ideally in the Topham or Becher Chase - have a significant advantage. They know what's coming. First-timers often don't cope with Becher's Brook or the Canal Turn.
Proven Stamina
This sounds obvious but people forget. Your horse needs to have won or performed well over 3 miles 2 furlongs or further. Ideally over 3.5 miles. Preferably multiple times. "He'll stay" isn't good enough. "He's proven" is what you want.
The Fences Factor
Let's talk about those famous obstacles for a moment.
The National fences have been modified over the years - they're safer now than they were, with easier take-off boards. But they're still formidable. And certain fences still claim victims:
- Becher's Brook (6th and 22nd): The famous drop on the landing side. Horses need to be careful, not bold.
- The Canal Turn (8th and 24th): Sharp left-hand turn immediately after the fence. Wide runners struggle.
- The Chair (15th): The tallest fence, but only jumped once and by then the field's usually thinned.
- The Elbow (home turn): Not a fence, but where exhausted horses get headed by those with reserves.
Clean jumpers with experience tend to navigate these better. Sprawling jumpers or those who gain air time get caught out.
Trainer and Jockey Angles
Some trainers and jockeys just "get" the National.
Gordon Elliott, Lucinda Russell, and the Mullins operation have strong recent records. These trainers understand what the race demands and prepare horses specifically for it.
On the riding side, experience is invaluable. Jockeys who've completed the course before - and ideally won or placed - know when to sit and when to push, which gaps to take and which to avoid.
First-time riders in the National sometimes get too aggressive early or too conservative late. The rhythm of the race is unique.
How to Actually Pick Your Grand National Horse
Right, practical process. Here's my approach:
Step 1: Filter by Trends
Eliminate horses outside the age range (8-10 ideal), carrying too much weight (11st 5lb+), or without proven stamina. This probably removes half the field immediately.
Step 2: Check Course Experience
Prioritise horses that have run over the National fences before. If they haven't, at least look for experience over big fences elsewhere (Haydock Grand National Trial, cross-country at Cheltenham).
Step 3: Look at Recent Form
How have they run in the past 2-3 months? You want signs of wellbeing - even a defeat in good style counts. Horses returning from long layoffs or showing patchy form are risky.
Step 4: Consider Connections
Is this a National specialist trainer? An experienced jockey? These things matter more here than in average handicaps.
Step 5: Trust Your Shortlist
After filtering, you should have maybe 5-8 horses that fit the profile. From here, it's about picking the ones you fancy from the bunch - and making sure the prices are reasonable.
Each-Way is Your Friend
Quick word on betting strategy.
The National is not the race for single win bets unless you're very confident. With 40 runners and a marathon distance, too much can go wrong.
Each-way bets make huge sense here. Most bookies pay 4 places, some pay 5 or 6 with enhanced odds. If your horse finishes in the first few, you're getting something back even if it doesn't win.
I typically have 2-3 each-way selections rather than one big bet. Spreads the risk, keeps you interested throughout, and acknowledges the chaos factor.
When to Place Your Bet
The Grand National market opens months in advance. Prices are usually best (and most generous) early - before the final declarations when everyone's piling in.
If you've done your homework and identified a horse you like, getting on early often means better odds. By race day, the market's been chewed over by thousands of punters and the value's usually gone.
That said, check for non-runners on the day. Nothing worse than backing a horse in February and watching it get withdrawn on Grand National morning.
The Emotional Side
Look, the Grand National is special. It's the one day of the year your entire family might gather around the TV for a horse race. There's genuine emotion there.
So pick horses you'll enjoy cheering. If the data says back a boring 10/1 shot but your heart says the 25/1 with the funny name, maybe have a bit on both. Life's short.
Just... don't bet more than you can afford to lose. It's still chaos, however well you analyse it.
Come back to this page closer to the 2025 race for specific contender analysis. We'll break down the likely runners with all the form details you need.
For now, start thinking about the profile. The trends. The type of horse that wins this race.
Then when the market opens properly, you'll be ready.
Grand National Analysis Made Easy
When the entries are announced, RaceBrain will have full form analysis for every runner. Get the edge on the world's most famous race.